Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
